Normally I would back Austin FC blindly, as they have made me most of my money this year in the MLS, however the books are catching onto the trend of people betting on them every chance they are +230 or higher. The Over 2.50 goals is juiced because 4 of their last 5 games in Texas have been high scoring affairs. What scares me from that Over, is the fact that the NY RedBulls are a very disciplined defensive team, going 6 straight away games without the total going over 2.5 and not only are they 4th in least amount of goals scored against, but they are 4th is least amount of shots taken period against them. The RedBulls simply are not allowing opportunities near the goal. Both teams are ranked relatively close in the defensive metrics, but I can see less than 3 goals scored in this matchup regardless of how well the offenses are ranked.

Something tells me this is going to be a hard fought DRAW today, which both teams would be happy with, given the fact that they are both in decent position in their opposing conferences (Austin FC #2 in the West, RedBulls #4 in the East). NY will opt into a defensive mindset and agree to not challenge Austin FC in a firefight, given that Austin FC are the better scoring team, and the fact that they have allowed multiple home teams to score 2 goals on them on the road in the last 6 games away.

Official Pick: UNDER 2.5 Goals

Official Lean: NY RedBulls +0.25