I'm on the over 237.5 in this matchup of Indiana @ Golden State for these reasons:

- The last time these teams met, the total went over this number. Warriors won that game 131 to 109 in February.

- Both teams have decent defensive metrics, but overall are bottom 20 to 30 defenses in points allowed.

- Memphis, NY Knicks (no Julius Randle or OG), The Spurs, and The Bulls have all scored 116 points in The Chase Center in The Warriors last 4 home games. Those road teams are worse offensively than the Pacers.

- Pacers are 18-17 on the road, Warriors are 18-18 at home. There's no edge to betting a side ATS, and that indicates a closer game with two Top 15 offenses that play at a fast pace.

- Both teams are reliant on the deep ball, being top 10 in 3pt percentage, but Golden State are more lethalband comfortable shooters at home from deep, which is going to force a willing Pacers team to engage in a shootout.

Official Play: Over 237.5

Side Bet: Brandin Podziemski over 7.5 points

Hail Mary: Warriors -5