I’m on the Padres money line at home vs the Twins for these reasons:

- Padres have the more experienced pitcher starting, with Matt Waldron on the mound. He’s 3-1 in his last 4 home starts, and is a strikeout machine in that stretch with 20 strikeouts. The Twins are batting .261 against righties, which isn’t bad but isn’t enough for me to trust them to out run a padres team that hasn’t scored less than 3 runs in the last 7 games.

- Twins are starting Simeon Woods Richardson who is hard for me to trust on the road, given he has a road ERA of 4.27, 11 runs in his last 3 road starts, and is not missing bats on the road with his 38 strikeouts in 52 away innings pitched. Padres are the hardest team to strikeout in the MLB and he’s going to give up runs here. Likely his toughest matchup all season, I don’t see him having a great outing today though he’s got a lot of promise for the future.

- Padres have closed out their last 3 straight home series’ with wins. And they will be staying home again to play the Mets series after this game.

Official Bet: Padres Moneyline

Side Bet: Matt Waldron over 4.5 strikeouts

Hail Mary: Under 8.5 Runs