I’m on the Pirates in this game at home vs the Cubs, for these reasons:

- Mitch Keller has 132 strikeouts in 148 games pitched. He’s been reliable as a starter for the Pirates, going 11-7 overall and 5-2 at home. His home ERA is 2.58, and the last time he started against the Cubs he won a 2-3 game, allowing only 2 runs scored, 2 hits in 6 innings pitched, but only 3 strikeouts. The Cubs batters are only hitting .233 on average as a team be righties, .238 in the last 15 games, so I expect a similar outing from Keller, if not a better result given that he’s at home this time. The cubs have won 5 of their last 6 straight series, so that’s why we are getting such a good number on the better team. Pirates bullpen is also much more reliable than the cubs.

- James Tallion was the other pitcher on the mound coincidentally in that 2-3 loss for the Cubs in Kellers last meeting with them, and he played well, but was the more hit pitcher, and that worries me about their chances to win here, especially on the road consecutively after just leaving Miami.

Official Play: Pirates Moneyline

Side Bet: Under 8.5 Runs

Hail Mary: Keller Under 5.5 Hits allowed