I’m on the over 7.5 runs in this Rays game at home vs the Padres for these reasons:

- Taj Bradley has a clear advantage on the mound between him and Martin Perez of the Padres. Perez is 1-3 on the road, Taj is 3-5 at home but his ERA is 2.83 in the overall innings he’s pitched in Tampa. The issue that brings me to the over on the Padres side, is that The Padres are batting .273 vs righties this season and Taj has given up 18 runs total in his last 4 starts! He is in a slump and vs a Padres team that has been nuclear at the plate and was recently held to 1 run by Sonny Gray of the Cardinals last night, a bounce back performance by San Diego is inevitable with them needed every win down the stretch to get a playoff berth.

- Martin Perez is going to give up runs to the rays, that’s a given. He throws the slider a majority of the time which the Rays bats don’t struggle much against. This should be a back and forth affair, with both teams having success, but the Padres winning in the end.


Official Play: Over 7.5 Runs

Side Bet: Padres Moneyline

Hail Mary: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 Outs