I’m on the Astros Moneyline vs the Reds for these reasons:

- Reds are not good vs Right handed pitchers, and Spencer Arrighetti is a Righty that averages 1 strikeouts per inning and has won his last 3 road starts vs better batting teams (Redsox, Phillies, Orioles). He’s averaging 6 inning pitched per start his last 5 games, and has a prominent K% and only 7 runs allowed in his last 32 innings pitched. Reds aren’t terrible against the fast ball, but a fast ball against right handed pitching could cause issues for them.

- Reds are starting Nick Martinez who has a diverse pitching arsenal of the Fastball , ChangeUp, and Cutter. This is sure to give the reds a chance here, which is why I feel the line is more generous than it should be, however he doesn’t have a good K rate, and has only pitched 5+ innings in 3 games his last 47 innings. The longer he pitches, the dangerous things are going to be for Nick, and I think his boastful numbers are skewed due to not enough work given.

Official Play: Astros Moneyline

Side Bet: Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 hits allowed

Hail Mary: Alex Bregman over 0.5 Runs scored