I’m on the Padres run line at home vs the tigers for these reasons:

- Mize has been terrible on the road this season. 2-3 road record and 5.05 ERA on the road this season. In only 35 road innings pitched, he’s given up only 4 less runs than the 49 home innings pitched. Fair to say he doesn’t last long in games away from home, and vs the best batting team against right handed pitchers, he’s likely to not last long here in a close out game for the series.

- Usually I’d fade the 2-0 series team, but the Tigers best chance was to win last night but they went runless in the last 5 innings and lost in the 10th, allowing 5 runs in the last 4 innings to lose the game 5 - 6. Things aren’t going to be easier vs Martin Perez who is 2-2 at home with a 3.80 home ERA. Tigers are only batting .237 vs lefties this season, Perez should have a good start, and we already know who has the better bullpen when these starting pitchers leave the mound.

Official Play: Padres Runline -1.5

Side Bet: Under 8.5 Runs

Hail Mary: Xander Bogaerts over 1.5 Hits Runs RBIs