This game is between two teams that are 9-7 and whoever wins the game gets a wild card spot so the game is very important and has divisional implications in the AFC South as well if the Jaguars lose their game. Houston is a much better team on offense when QB Stroud is playing. He has thrown for over 4,000 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and five interceptions. Stroud should be able to shred the Colts defense in this game. The Texans are fourth in the league in rushing defense allowing only 88.5 rushing yards per game so the Colts will struggle to run the ball all day, they will be forced to air it out. The Texans are playing better defense and they should be able to beat the Colts and Minshew who really was supposed to be the Colts backup quarterback and may regress in this game by throwing some interceptions. Even without Tank Dell, who is out for the season, the Texans do get Collins and Schultz back to help and they are getting healthy. The Colts have some injuries as well that can factor into the outcome of this game. The key to this game is that the Texans have the better offensive talent to win this game, the better QB and coaching. This is also a revenge game for the Texans as they lost early in the season to this Colts team at home and they have a 62% chance of beating the Colts in the second rematch of a series according to league stats. This will be a close game but the Texans win by 3.

The Texans are 2-1 ATS this season, revenging a loss against an opponent. Texans are 3-1 ATS off a division game. The Colts are 1-2 ATS this season as a home underdog of 3 points or less. Indianapolis are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference South division.

Best bet: lay the point with Houston or take them on the moneyline.