Milwaukee won't have Lillard back on Monday, but I still favor the visitors' side. Phoenix has caught fire recently, but, aside from the win against Cleveland, it's been against poor competition. The Suns' defense is still lackluster, and Giannis has dominated their defense the last two seasons, scoring 34 and 36 in the previous matchups. Phoenix ranks 23rd in rim defense and 18th in three-point defense, while Milwaukee is 10th in rim scoring and 3rd in 3PT%. On the other end of the court, the Bucks can hold the Suns in check. The visitors are 4th in opponent effective field goal percentage, including 5th in three-point defense.

The Suns are among the slowest-tempo teams in the league, ranking 21st in pace. At home, I expect them to dictate the pace. They could also struggle offensively for spurts of action, as the Bucks are a defensive-minded team stout inside and beyond the arc. Phoenix ranks last in rim shot attempt rate and mid-range shot attempt rate, so if their three-pointers aren't falling, points will be hard to come by. The Suns also rank 26th in offensive rebounding rate and Milwaukee ranks 6th in opponent free-throw attempt rate.

In a slower-paced game, a lower-scoring performance by the home team will keep the total under the number.