I'll take the Marlins with two runs of insurance at home at reasonable odds (-130)!

Adam Oller struggled in his first MLB start but pitched well in his next two starts (one run on six hits in 11.2 frames) and faces a Phillies lineup that may be without Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper, who are both questionable. Bohm has not played since Aug. 29 with a hand injury and Harper left Wednesday's game after getting hit in the elbow in his first at-bat.

Ranger Suarez was dominant earlier in the season but has been fade-worthy in his last six starts (6.90 ERA). Miami knocked him around for six runs on ten hits (4.2 innings) in the first outing of that stretch, and the Fins have been an improved ballclub at the plate in the second half of the season (4.4 runs/game and a 103 wRC+, up from 3.5 runs/game and an 84 wRC+ in the first half of the season).

The 1.5-run line is tempting at plus odds, but with my best bet at +150 odds, I'm going to bet more cautiously on the Marlins, especially with reasonable juice on them to cover the 2.5-run line.