Carlos Rodon has been a much better pitcher at home (8-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) and KC isn't nearly as deadly on the road. The veteran southpaw held the Royals to one run in seven innings in June and will look to build off a quality start in his last outing (one run on one hit with 11 Ks in six innings vs. Texas). Rodon was 9-7 with a 4.63 ERA in the first half of the season but has responded, posting a 5-2 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP since the All-Star break, holding opponents to a .198 batting average with a 60:16 K:BB ratio in 45.1 combined innings (eight starts).

Brady Singer has been too up and down recently to project a quality start against the Bronx Bombers. He's coming off a couple of decent starts but was rocked by the Phillies (five runs on 11 hits), Twins (six runs on eight hits) and Red Sox (four runs on ten hits) before that. His last start against New York (June 11) didn't go swimmingly, either (seven runs on seven hits). Furthermore, his 4.37 xERA is a run higher than his actual ERA, indicating he's due for negative regression at some point.

With a reliable starting pitcher advantage, I bet the Yankees will cover the run line tonight and love the value at +115 odds.