I am 3-1 in NFL best bets so far, winning the Thursday, Friday and Sunday best bets with a loss on MNF. With that said, I'm siding with Miami to cover the 2.5-point spread on Thursday.

Trends: The Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 AFC East contests and were 6-2 ATS as home favorites last year.

Will the Bills' receivers create enough separation against the Dolphins' DBs? I'm not sold they will. The loss of Stefon Diggs will be felt in this matchup... Miami is banged up at RB, but there's still talent in the backfield. De’Von Achane (ankle) was back at practice on Wednesday with no red jersey or clear visual limitations. He and Jeff Wilson/Jaylen Wright can produce in Raheem Mostert's place. The Bills were among the worst teams in Rush EPA per play allowed last year. Granted Miami can run the ball effectively, Tua is going to shred the Buffalo secondary. On a short week, the visitors' defense is going to be in for a challenge limiting big plays from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.