Betting Trend: Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games (-3.45 Units / -45% ROI).

The Noles were written off a lot earlier than I expected and will close as likely three-touchdown dogs to the rival Canes this weekend. That's surprising, as Miami has been prone to several near upsets this season and will find itself in another close game at home this Saturday. The Hurricanes' pass defense is soft (342 passing yards and for passing TDs allowed last week vs. Louisville) and the Seminoles can take advantage. They would have been victorious if they had not turned the ball over four times last Friday at Duke.

I understand that a bet on FSU will turn many people off, but the Canes aren't trustworthy enough to believe they'll cover by three-plus TDs against their rivals.