The Steelers are flying under the radar here, which I love, as the game's outcome decides Cincinnati's season. That doesn't mean it should win, though, as bettors put too much value in a team winning "must-win" games. Instead, I'll back the team that has actually played winning football this season.

Against teams that are currently .500 or better, the Bengals have gone 0-6 straight up. The Steelers have beaten the three teams they have played with winning records (the Chargers, Commanders and Ravens).

Joe Burrow deserves MVP hype, but the Bengals' lack of a run game (30th in rush success rate) doesn't win them games. The Cincy offense line (last in run block win rate and 26th in the NFL in pass block win rate) is going to be in for a long afternoon against a Steelers defense that ranks 5th in defensive EPA and pass rush win rate. On top of that, the Bengals' defense struggles against the run (29th in the league in defensive EPA and 31st in defensive rush success rate). That doesn't fit the mold of a winner in a cold-weather clash between AFC North division opponents.

Bet on the Pittsburgh moneyline.