I'm bullish on the Magic to cover the spread against a NOLA team that hasn't looked the same since Brandon Ingram went down. Without BI, New Orleans' offensive efficiency has fallen nearly five points per 100 possessions over the past two weeks. It's struggling at the rim, shooting under 60% from within four feet of the hoop, and is relying too heavily on Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas.

Defensively, the Pelicans rank 27th in opponent rim FG% since Ingram's injury, which is a cause for concern against the Magic, who take it to the rim more than any team in the NBA. They also get to the free-throw line a lot (1st in FT attempts). Orlando managed 121 points per 100 possessions vs. NOLA when they matched up a couple of weeks ago and should take advantage of a Pels' perimeter defense weakened by Ingram's absence.

Orlando has been a winner (14-12 ATS) as road underdogs this season. At +4, there is too much value to pass up on this bet given its advantages against the Ingram-less Pelicans.