The Twins should feel confident in their odds of winning straight-up on Friday! The southpaw Tarik Skubal has struggled against right-handed hitters during his pro career, giving up 23 home runs and 44 walks in 77 appearances. He allowed four runs, including two HRs, at home versus the A's on April 5. The Twins have struggled against righty pitchers this season, but have fared better against lefties (.766 OPS with a 5.6 percent home run rate). Minnesota's lineup isn't as strong as usual with RF Max Kepler and 3B Royce Lewis sidelined, but SS Carlos Correa, CF Byron Buxton, and C Ryan Jeffers are powerful right-handed hitters. Correa has hit lefties well throughout his career and comes into this game slashing .324/.452/.471/.923.

I predict the Twins' righty hitters will jump on Skubal early, giving the reliable Pablo López the run support he needs to take care of the Tigers. At plus odds, I like the value here and recommend a four-unit wager on Minnesota.