The pitching matchup favors Seattle and the Mariners are due for positive regression at the plate, making this a value bet at just -116 odds (play to -130 or better). Seattle SP Bryce Miller has great stuff and he's generating more swings and misses this season than last year (23.5% whiff rate to 36.4%). That has increased his K% and lowered his ERA. The Mariners also have a legit bullpen behind Miller to close the door on Chicago.

Cubs SP Jordan Wicks can be touched when he isn't hitting his spots. Unlike Miller, his stuff isn't elite, so accuracy is crucial to his success. The Mariners are underperforming relative to their expected wOBA and it's not like there isn't plenty of talent in their lineup. At home on Friday, I like them to play closer to expectations, securing a winning ticket for Seattle ML bettors.