This is a marquee pitching matchup on paper, but I see it differently.

Giants SP Blake Snell has struggled so far with San Francisco, going 0-2 with a 12.86 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. As I have mentioned in previous analysis, he won the Cy Young last year but was due for negative regression, as he was fortunate to pitch around so many jams in 2023. He isn't generating enough swings and misses in '24, especially on his curveball. The D-Backs work the count well, chase pitches outside of the zone at a low rate, don't strike out much, and take their walks. After being held scoreless on Thursday, I believe they'll break out on Friday.

Arizona SP Jordan Montgomery will be making his first start of the season. He wasn't great in his last minor league rehab outing, allowing seven runs on nine hits in 3.2 innings. His spin rate was down and his velocity was down two ticks from his 2023 velocity, clocking in at 91.3 MPH on his sinker vs. 93.3 last season, in line with his previous start.

Given these question marks, I'm more comfortable fading these starters to bet the over at 7.5!