Both starting pitchers are home-run prone. Joe Ryan allowed 32 HR last season and has given up four HRs in five starts in 2024, while Garrett Crochet has allowed six HRs in six starts this year. The weather conditions (70 degrees at first pitch, with 12 mph winds blowing out to left field) work in the over's favor, too.

Crochet has recently struggled with his command and allowed 17 runs in his last three starts (11.2 IP). Ryan has been mostly solid, but he's facing the White Sox in consecutive starts. It can be challenging to silence the same lineup in back-to-back outings, especially considering Chicago is coming off a three-game sweep of Tampa Bay and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last week.

At 7.5 and +104 odds, I believe the over will cash and strongly feel that it's a value bet.