There is often a lot of value in taking the Over in rainy games simply because a lot of bettors wrongly assume the rain will inhibit scoring. But when the forecast calls for rain AND wind, that’s when the conditions can actually have an effect. Those are exactly the conditions we have tonight in Muncie with the forecast calling for steady rain and wind gusts up to 30 mph.
Ball State has a bad offense under the best of circumstances, averaging just 22.7 ppg (92nd). But what they REALLY don’t do well is run the football and have averaged just 3.3 ypc (117th) and are second-to-last in the MAC behind only Kent State, the worst running team in the country.
Meanwhile, the RedHawks defense is a top 25 unit in the country, allowing just 19.9 points per game. They’ve snagged more interceptions than they’ve allowed touchdowns and held opposition quarterbacks under six yards per attempt while ranking fourth in the MAC for rushing yards allowed.
This is going to be a game of hard runs, short passes, and, when they occur, long scoring drives. Grab this one early because as more and more bettors become aware of the impending weather, i expect this number to drop.