There have been a lot of great turnaround stories this college football season, but for bettors, there is no turnaround bigger than the Iowa Hawkeyes going from a 12-2 Under team to being the most profitable Over team in the country, exceeding the total in seven of eight games. Besides the perception still present from last year, there are a couple of very good reasons for the switch. First, the offense is producing almost twice as many points as last year. 29.6 vs 15.4. And, while they still have a very good defense, surrendering just 20.3 ppg, the 4th-best scoring defense was elite last season, giving up just 14.8 ppg. With a net difference of 20.7 points, it’s not hard to see why the trend is what it is.
Starting quarterback Dade McNamara is out with a concussion for a second straight week but he is replaced by a true dual-threat QB who has a better arm in Brendan Sullivan. They also feature the second-best back in the nation after Ashton Jeanty. Kaleb Johnson has rushed for 1,279 yards 19 TDs and averages 7.5 ypc. This is a talented Bruins rush defense but having to account for Johnson and Sullivan opens up the running game in a way the Hawks couldn’t do with McNamara at the helm.
This is a Bruins team that has found its offensive rhythm over the last two weeks, putting 62 points on the board as QB Ethan Garbers has gone for over 600 yards, six touchdowns, and zero picks in that stretch. The Iowa defense has shown themselves vulnerable to big passing play and Garber and company should be able to hit some downfield shots.