#640 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh +4.5 over Duke, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We do not get the love for Duke. They simply aren’t very good this season. But again, this line opened with Duke favored by -2 and has jumped to -4 as people continue to play them. Very similar to last week when we took Va Tech over Duke after the Hokies opened as a 1-point favorite but went off as a 2-point dog. VT controlled the entire game on their way to a 7 point win as the dog. Duke’s spread record is an abysmal 1-7 ATS this season as the continue to be overvalued because of their name. Not only have they consistently lost to the number, it hasn’t been close. Their 7 spread losses have come by an average of 12.2 PPG. Even if we throw in their 1 spread win @ Notre Dame, the Devils average spread loss this year is by 10 points. They sit at 3-1 in the ACC, however their 3 wins have come vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league (BC, Wake Forest, and Notre Dame). Pitt is flying under the radar right now in our opinion. This is a very solid team. They have won 7 of their last 8 games with their only loss during that run coming @ Louisville and the Panthers were without 2 of their best players, both starters, in that game. Both of those players, Toney (16 PPG) and Champagnie (19 PPG), have both returned to the line up and played very well. Pitt’s defense is the best in the ACC in league play allowing just 0.92 PPP. Duke’s defense in ACC play ranks allowing 1.07 PPP despite not playing a team ranked in the top 5 in the league in offensive efficiency and playing 3 teams ranked 11th or lower in that category. Duke shoots a lot of 3’s (almost 39% of their shots come from deep) but they are not particularly good at it. Pitt’s defense ranks 9th nationally at defending the arc allowing only 25.9%. The Devils also don’t get to the FT line with just 13% of their points coming from the stripe (330th nationally). Not a recipe for winning on the road. We like Pitt in this game both at +4 and throwing a little on the money line as well.