#951/952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs – Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET – We successfully used the under in the match-up between these teams yesterday but that was heavily based on the pitching match-up. The fact is both these teams have been swinging pretty hot bats and today's pitchers will not stand in the way of the hot hitting. Before being held to 1 run in yesterday's loss, the Phillies had won 9 of 11 games and averaged 6.3 runs scored in the 9 wins. The Reds have won 8 of 12 games and the over was on an 8-2 run last 10 games prior to yesterday's under. Cincinnati has scored an average of 6.5 runs in their last dozen games. As for the pitchers today, the over is 6-2-1 in Matt Moore's starts this season and he is winless in those 9 starts. The Phillies left-hander has particularly struggled in home starts with a 9.30 ERA in five starts at Citizens Bank Park. The Reds start Luis Castillo and he is off an ugly road outing at Cleveland. Castillo had been hot before that start but he definitely has struggled more on the road than at home when he does get tripped up. Including the start against the Indians, Castillo is now 2-6 with a 5.40 ERA in his 12 road starts this season and the over is 8-3-1 in those. Castillo has allowed a pair of homers in each of his last two road starts. He also allowed a pair of homers the last time he pitched at Philly. Moore's last two starts have both been in Philly and he allowed a pair of homers in each of those. Don't be surprised if this game turns into a slugfest as, also the Phillies pen has been better of late but still is certainly no strength and the Reds pen is a major weakness. This one gets well into double digits in runs scored in most of our computer math models run for this game. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 6 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 13 runs (7-6 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over