#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points.