Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right.

But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points.

The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that.

The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.