Situation, key injury and past history all point to the Pacers being the right side here.

The Pacers are in stop-the-pain mode as they battle for playoff seeding having dropped seven of their last eight games. They suffered a tough two-point road loss to the Celtics on Friday, but then laid an egg at home against the Magic, losing 121-116 on Saturday. The Pacers surrendered 65 second-half points to the Magic.

Indiana is the No. 1 ranked defense in the NBA. I see the Pacers playing with a great deal of intensity and tightening up their prideful defense. They draw the Pistons minus their most dangerous scorer, Blake Griffin, and coming off a highly-satisfying home comeback victory against the Trail Blazers on Saturday. Until that win against Portland, Detroit was 0-3 when they were minus Griffin.

The Pistons are much worse on the road with a 14-24 record. The Pacers are much stronger at home with a 28-10 mark, 22-16 ATS. The Pacers have covered eight of the past 11 times at home when meeting an opponent with a sub .500 record on the road.

The Pacers have dominated the Pistons, too, at home covering seven of the past eight times.