Lots of rust. European venue. Sabres in a major scoring slump. Factor it all in and this total is too high. 
Tampa Bay hasn't played in a week. Buffalo last was in action six days ago. The reason for this long interval is this matchup is taking place in Stockholm. The puck drops at 11 a.m. American West Coast time. The two teams meet again at the same location on Saturday. All of these elements favor the Under. 
The Sabres are in a huge scoring slump managing just three goals in their last three games. They have been held to two goals or fewer in each of their last five games. The Sabres know the only way to end their three-game losing skid is slow down the tempo and keep the Lightning from breaking open the game. 
If you discount a 7-6 overtime victory against the defensively-challenged Devils, the Lightning is averaging only two goals during its past five games.