At 48-102, the Royals have the second-worst record in baseball. A terrible pitching staff is a major factor why the Royals could finish with more than 106 losses, which would exceed the most defeats ever in a season for them. Kansas City has the third-highest ERA in the league and the second-fewest quality starts.

Brady Singer is one of those stiff Kansas City pitchers at 8-11 with a 5.51 ERA. Singer gets the start here as he stumbles toward the finish line having gone 0-3 in his last five starts with a 7.82 ERA.

Cleveland is 24 games better than Kansas City. The Guardians aren't likely to make the playoffs either. But they just swept the Rangers, who had won six in a row before losing three straight to the Guardians.

The Guardians have motivation and pride to finish strong for popular Terry Francona, who is likely to step down as manager after leading Cleveland for the last 11 years.

Cal Quantrill draws the start for Cleveland. His record is 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA, but he's been in excellent form posting a 1.50 ERA during his last three starts. He's gone six innings in each of those past three starts.

So I find this to be a low price to lay given the Guardians are the superior team, have the better starting pitcher and won't lack motivation.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 23-8-1 (74 percent) on his last 32 MLB premium plays. Stephen's Monday card is topped by his MLB September Game of the Month.)