Neither Luis Severino nor the Yankees can be counted on. The Brewers have lost eight fewer games than the Yankees. So I'm going to back the underdog.

The Brewers are 37-34 on the road. They have a rested bullpen, unlike New York, having been idle Thursday. That's important because Colin Rea, their fifth starter, is slated to pitch.

Rea isn't very good, but he hasn't been as bad as Severino, who is 4-8 with a 6.75 ERA. That ERA goes up to 8.10 when Severino pitches at night. Severino has surrendered 15 runs in his last 25 innings pitching at Yankee Stadium.

The right-handed Rea has a 5.07 ERA. But note he's pitched against good-hitting teams in five of his last six starts, including the Braves and Phillies twice. The Yankees are second-to-last in batting average against righty pitchers.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is enjoying his finest stretch of the baseball season going 18-5 on his last 23 premium plays. Stephen has two premium MLB plays going today and his Canadian Football League Game of the Month. Stephen is 12-3 on his last 15 CFL plays, beating the league for the ninth time in 10 seasons.)