These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25. 

Troy opened 1-2 and then won 10 in a row, including defeating Appalachian State, 49-23, in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games. 

This is the first time a Sun Belt team is facing a foe from a Power 5 Conference in a bowl game. Troy has more than sufficient motivation. Not so for Duke. The Trojans also will have strong in-state crowd support with this game in Birmingham, Ala. 

I had great respect for Duke coach Mike Elko. But he left for Texas A&M. The Blue Devils not only won't have Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame, but won't have star defensive linemen Aeneas Peebles and RJ Oben. They each entered the transfer portal. 

Troy averaged 36.5 points in its last six games. The Trojans are also strong defensively ranking sixth in sacks and 15th in total defense. Duke's offense was well below average without Leonard. The Blue Devils ended up ranking 96th in total yards.