OK, no Jimmy Butler for the Heat. I'll accept that in order to get the Heat at a near pick price against the Hawks.

Miami does have Bam Adebeyo, Tyler Herro and coach Erik Spoelstra. The Heat does have a much superior defense. Miami surrenders 11 fewer points per game than Atlanta.

The 12-15 Hawks have earned no trust. They are getting too much respect in the marketplace because they've won two in a row. One of those wins was against the Pistons, an all-time record bad team. The other victory was impressive, a 134-127 comeback road win against the Rockets two days ago.

I don't see the Hawks beating two strong defensive teams, Rockets and Heat, on the road in consecutive games.

Miami is playing well itself off a 115-106 road victory against the much-improved Magic. The Heat won that game minus Butler. This is an easier game for them.