The Brewers are just 13-12 against lefty starters this season. They are facing promising rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker in this day game. Parker has a 2.61 day time ERA.

But that's not the main reason I'm backing the underdog Nationals.

The Brewers are starting washed-up Dallas Keuchel. That's the major part of this handicap is a fade on Keuchel, who has a 4.61 ERA. His ERA was 5.97 last season. Two years ago, Keuchel pitched for three teams - Diamondbacks, Rangers and White Sox. His ERA for those teams was 9.64, 12.60 and 7.88. He should not be favored.