This is a 10* NFC NON-DIV TOM on the UNDER 49ers/Bucs.

I really love the way this one sets up from a "situational" stand point. If you've followed me for any length of time then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper. I'm also a contrarian at heart and while the majority is expecting these teams to post another high-scoring after posting several "overs" of the last few weeks, I definitely feel that the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

San Fran has been trading wins/losses over its last six games. Off a 30-24 win over Dallas last week, it will be eager to reverse that trend this weekend. The 49ers have also seen the total go Over/Under the last six games as well, after it eclipsed the posted number last time out, look for this O/U trend to continue here with another lower-scoring battle.

The Bucs are now desperate to snap a three-game slide after last weeks 30-24 OT loss at KC. Tampa Bay has seen the total go OVER in six straight, but note that despite last week's total going OVER the number, Tampa has still seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven dating to last year after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

It's a crucial game for both sides. With each team putting an added emphasis onto establishing the run game while on offense, everything points to this game being decided by field-position, and the men in the trenches.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP