This is a 10* AFC WEST TOM on the UNDER Denver/KC.

I really love the way this one sets up from a "situational" stand point. If you've followed me for any length of time then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper. I'm also a contrarian at heart and while the majority is expecting these teams to post another high-scoring after posting several "overs" of the last few weeks, I definitely feel that the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned.

Denver is off the 41-10 loss at Baltimore last weekend and I think it'll struggle with offensive consistency in this one as well. The Broncos have now seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five dating to last year after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

KC is 8-0. It's off the 30-24 OT win over Tampa last weekend. When these divisional opponents played last October 29th though, Denver won by a score of 24-9.

I anticipate a similar final combined score here as well, where field position becomes a big determining factor for the winning side.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP