PREMIUM
AAA's *50 STAR* Wk. 17 5-GM REPORT (245-203 +$18,990 w/ ALL 10* NFL!)
(NFL) New Orleans vs. Atlanta,
Point Spread: -4.00 | -105.00 Atlanta (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -4.00 | -105.00 Atlanta (Home)
Result: Loss
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Motivation: Who is the more motivated team today? Neither will be playing in the postseason. We think the Saints will have a letdown here after beating the Jaguars 38-27 last week though. Conversely, the Falcons will be eager to post a victory for the home town crowd and to avenge a 31-21 loss to New Orleans at the Superdome earlier in the season.
- Injury: Mark Ingram was a huge part of the Saints success in the early victory, but the power back will be sitting this one out with injury.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs point to this one being a blowout for the home side, as note that New Orleans is just 10-15 ATS in its last 25 on the road and is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. While note that Atlanta has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: This one opened at -2 and has since gone closer to -5.5 (we have -4), but regardless, the situational/motivational edges clearly favor the home side in our opinion, lay the points with confidence on the FALCONS!
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Motivation: Who is the more motivated team today? Neither will be playing in the postseason. We think the Saints will have a letdown here after beating the Jaguars 38-27 last week though. Conversely, the Falcons will be eager to post a victory for the home town crowd and to avenge a 31-21 loss to New Orleans at the Superdome earlier in the season.
- Injury: Mark Ingram was a huge part of the Saints success in the early victory, but the power back will be sitting this one out with injury.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs point to this one being a blowout for the home side, as note that New Orleans is just 10-15 ATS in its last 25 on the road and is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. While note that Atlanta has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: This one opened at -2 and has since gone closer to -5.5 (we have -4), but regardless, the situational/motivational edges clearly favor the home side in our opinion, lay the points with confidence on the FALCONS!
AAA Sports
