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(NFL) Kansas City vs. Houston,
Total: 40.00 | -107.00 Under
Result: Loss
Total: 40.00 | -107.00 Under
Result: Loss
This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Andy Reid and Alex Smith: The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.
Brian Hoyer: Tom Brady's ex-back-up has had a tumultuous year, getting benched in the third quarter of Game 1, while also getting injured a few times. At one point in the middle of the season though he would go 4-1 and throw ten TD's and only three picks. Hoyer clearly has the trust of his team now and the Texans would rally down the stretch without their No. 1 RB as well (Arian Foster was injured early, lost for the season).
Over/Under ATS statistics: Despite these being a couple of the better defensive clubs in the league, note that this is in fact a position in which each has shown a penchant to play to the higher number as KC has seen the total go OVER the posted number in five of seven road games this season, while Houston has seen the total sail above the posted number in six of nine as an underdog and in eight of its last 14 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: The winner of this game will be the one that can move the ball and we definitely expect each team to come out firing, in our professional opinion, this number is indeed a little low. Play on the OVER.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Andy Reid and Alex Smith: The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.
Brian Hoyer: Tom Brady's ex-back-up has had a tumultuous year, getting benched in the third quarter of Game 1, while also getting injured a few times. At one point in the middle of the season though he would go 4-1 and throw ten TD's and only three picks. Hoyer clearly has the trust of his team now and the Texans would rally down the stretch without their No. 1 RB as well (Arian Foster was injured early, lost for the season).
Over/Under ATS statistics: Despite these being a couple of the better defensive clubs in the league, note that this is in fact a position in which each has shown a penchant to play to the higher number as KC has seen the total go OVER the posted number in five of seven road games this season, while Houston has seen the total sail above the posted number in six of nine as an underdog and in eight of its last 14 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: The winner of this game will be the one that can move the ball and we definitely expect each team to come out firing, in our professional opinion, this number is indeed a little low. Play on the OVER.
AAA Sports
