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(NFL) Kansas City vs. Houston,
Point Spread: -3.00 | -106.00 Kansas City (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: -3.00 | -106.00 Kansas City (Away)
Result: Win
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Andy Reid and Alex Smith: Just like in our play on the OVER in this same contest, these two are a big reason behind our reasoning for this play as well. The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.
ATS statistics: Note that Kansas City is 3-1 ATS this year off a win vs. a division rival and 5-3 ATS on the road, while Houston is just 2-3 ATS in its last five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and only 2-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: Hats off to Houston for turning its season around under such trying circumstances, but there's no question that it benefitted greatly from playing in the weak division. KC made early season adjustments and comes into the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. And certainly we're giving the nod to Smith over Brian Hoyer. We look for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, play on the CHIEFS.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Andy Reid and Alex Smith: Just like in our play on the OVER in this same contest, these two are a big reason behind our reasoning for this play as well. The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.
ATS statistics: Note that Kansas City is 3-1 ATS this year off a win vs. a division rival and 5-3 ATS on the road, while Houston is just 2-3 ATS in its last five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and only 2-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: Hats off to Houston for turning its season around under such trying circumstances, but there's no question that it benefitted greatly from playing in the weak division. KC made early season adjustments and comes into the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. And certainly we're giving the nod to Smith over Brian Hoyer. We look for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, play on the CHIEFS.
AAA Sports
