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(NFL) Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati,
Point Spread: 3.00 | -110.00 Cincinnati (Home)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 3.00 | -110.00 Cincinnati (Home)
Result: Win
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
AJ McCarron: Obviously the QB has a big opportunity to finally break the Bengals playoff curse and since Andy Dalton went down, he has in fact been pretty sharp, completing 76 of 115 passes for 832 yards with six TD's, two INT's and a 97.4 passer rating.
DeAngelo Williams: The RB is out for the Steelers, which is massive to an offense which depends so strongly on the run to open up the passing game. The Bengals are tough against the pass AND the run, this turns the Steelers offense extremely one dimensional and thus, predictable. Note that Williams had a major impact vs. the Bengals this year, rushing for 201 total yards and two scores in the two games the team's split.
ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win vs. a division rival, while Cincinnati is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog.
The bottom line: We can't understate how important we feel that home field advantage will be today and while we obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on the BENGALS.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
AJ McCarron: Obviously the QB has a big opportunity to finally break the Bengals playoff curse and since Andy Dalton went down, he has in fact been pretty sharp, completing 76 of 115 passes for 832 yards with six TD's, two INT's and a 97.4 passer rating.
DeAngelo Williams: The RB is out for the Steelers, which is massive to an offense which depends so strongly on the run to open up the passing game. The Bengals are tough against the pass AND the run, this turns the Steelers offense extremely one dimensional and thus, predictable. Note that Williams had a major impact vs. the Bengals this year, rushing for 201 total yards and two scores in the two games the team's split.
ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win vs. a division rival, while Cincinnati is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog.
The bottom line: We can't understate how important we feel that home field advantage will be today and while we obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on the BENGALS.
AAA Sports
