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(NHL) Calgary vs. Dallas,
Money Line: -205.00 Dallas (Home)
Result: Win
Money Line: -205.00 Dallas (Home)
Result: Win
This is a 6* BIG TIGER on the Dallas Stars.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge factor: The Stars have lost three straight in the series.
Final home game: Dallas plays its final home game before the All Star break and then hits the road for an extended stretch, putting added importance onto this contest: "It's going to be huge for us. It's a home game, too We need all those points now," Stars' defenseman John Klingberg assessed last night. "Chicago is in front of us now, and we want to keep playing good here, so it's going to be a big game."
No need to overanalyze: The Flames are 2-4-1 in their last seven and are coming off a 5-2 loss at Carolina just last night.
ATS statistics: Note that Calgary is a poor 2-4 (-1.7 units) this year when playing on back-to-back days, while Dallas is 4-1 (+3.3 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest.
The bottom line: The overwhelming motivational, situational and trend based factors working in favor of the home side today makes this a price which we have no problem at all in laying; play on the STARS.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge factor: The Stars have lost three straight in the series.
Final home game: Dallas plays its final home game before the All Star break and then hits the road for an extended stretch, putting added importance onto this contest: "It's going to be huge for us. It's a home game, too We need all those points now," Stars' defenseman John Klingberg assessed last night. "Chicago is in front of us now, and we want to keep playing good here, so it's going to be a big game."
No need to overanalyze: The Flames are 2-4-1 in their last seven and are coming off a 5-2 loss at Carolina just last night.
ATS statistics: Note that Calgary is a poor 2-4 (-1.7 units) this year when playing on back-to-back days, while Dallas is 4-1 (+3.3 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest.
The bottom line: The overwhelming motivational, situational and trend based factors working in favor of the home side today makes this a price which we have no problem at all in laying; play on the STARS.
AAA Sports
