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(NBA) Denver vs. Washington,
Point Spread: 6.50 | -107.00 Denver (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 6.50 | -107.00 Denver (Away)
Result: Win
1* Free Play Nuggets.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Out of sync: Washington had a four-day layoff because of the East Coast blizzard and hasn't been able to regain its chemistry, losing back to back games, most recently a listless 106-89 road defeat to the Raptors. Guard Bradley Beal suffered a broken nose and concussion in a loss to the Celtics and is still under NBA protocol.
The visitors can shoot: Denver struggles on the defensive end of the floor, but it has no issues in running and gunning with the best of them, note that the Nuggets have eclipsed the 100 point plateau in six-straight games.
Brutal perimeter defensive play: Note that the Wizards are dead last in the league in 3-point percentage defense at 38.2, and they've been particularly inept in that department of late as opponents have hit at a 45.4 percent rate over the last four games.
ATS statistics: Note that Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 overall and 19-12 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Washington is just 11-13 ATS at home this year and only 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
The bottom line: Would you be shocked if the visitors pulled off the upset here against the struggling and injured Wizards? We wouldn't be. That said, in the end we'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for DENVER to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Out of sync: Washington had a four-day layoff because of the East Coast blizzard and hasn't been able to regain its chemistry, losing back to back games, most recently a listless 106-89 road defeat to the Raptors. Guard Bradley Beal suffered a broken nose and concussion in a loss to the Celtics and is still under NBA protocol.
The visitors can shoot: Denver struggles on the defensive end of the floor, but it has no issues in running and gunning with the best of them, note that the Nuggets have eclipsed the 100 point plateau in six-straight games.
Brutal perimeter defensive play: Note that the Wizards are dead last in the league in 3-point percentage defense at 38.2, and they've been particularly inept in that department of late as opponents have hit at a 45.4 percent rate over the last four games.
ATS statistics: Note that Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 overall and 19-12 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Washington is just 11-13 ATS at home this year and only 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
The bottom line: Would you be shocked if the visitors pulled off the upset here against the struggling and injured Wizards? We wouldn't be. That said, in the end we'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for DENVER to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
AAA Sports
