PREMIUM
AAA's 10* BIG-TEN *BIG-TIGER!*
(NCAAB) Michigan State vs. Purdue,
Point Spread: 1.00 | -105.00 Purdue (Home)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 1.00 | -105.00 Purdue (Home)
Result: Win
This is a 10* BIG-TIGER on Purdue.
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge factor: To say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement, as MSU has won seven-straight in the series.
Rebounding battle: These are a couple of the leagues best on the glass, as MSU leads the country at plus 12.8. Purdue has been dominant down low all year as well and we feel this will play a major factor in the outcome of this contest as the Boilermakers are third in the nation in rebounding differential at plus-11.8 and have been the only team to yet be out rebounded in a game. This negates the Spartans strength and tips the scales in favor of the home side.
Even defensively: These teams are also a "wash" defensively, MSU leads the conference in almost every category, while Purdue is right behind in second.
ATS statistics: Note that Michigan State is just 2-5 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while Purdue is 6-4 ATS in the same position.
The bottom line: It's hard to imagine Michigan State "looking past" Purdue today, but with a game vs. Indiana next Saturday, the team sitting just one spot ahead of it in the league standings, it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility. And combined with the other situational, motivational and trend based factors listed above, all signs do indeed point to the BOILERMAKERS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge factor: To say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement, as MSU has won seven-straight in the series.
Rebounding battle: These are a couple of the leagues best on the glass, as MSU leads the country at plus 12.8. Purdue has been dominant down low all year as well and we feel this will play a major factor in the outcome of this contest as the Boilermakers are third in the nation in rebounding differential at plus-11.8 and have been the only team to yet be out rebounded in a game. This negates the Spartans strength and tips the scales in favor of the home side.
Even defensively: These teams are also a "wash" defensively, MSU leads the conference in almost every category, while Purdue is right behind in second.
ATS statistics: Note that Michigan State is just 2-5 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while Purdue is 6-4 ATS in the same position.
The bottom line: It's hard to imagine Michigan State "looking past" Purdue today, but with a game vs. Indiana next Saturday, the team sitting just one spot ahead of it in the league standings, it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility. And combined with the other situational, motivational and trend based factors listed above, all signs do indeed point to the BOILERMAKERS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
