PREMIUM
AAA's 10* NON-CONF TOP TOTAL (+$21,000 NHL RUN!)
(NHL) Anaheim vs. Philadelphia,
Total: 5.00 | -126.00 Over
Result: Push
Total: 5.00 | -126.00 Over
Result: Push
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between the Anaheim Ducks and the Philadelphia Flyers.
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics as well as common sense:
Note that Anaheim has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of 14 road games where the total is five or less, in five of eight after allowing four goals or more, in six of eight after a loss by two goals or more and in 11 of 18 vs. teams with losing records.
And note that Philadelphia has seen the total drop below the posted number in ten of 17 non-conference contests (Philly has seen the total go UNDER in eight of 15 non-conference games).
The bottom line: The Ducks come in off a 6-2 loss at Pittsburgh just last night and we think will come out a bit flat offensively here. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move in this contest.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics as well as common sense:
Note that Anaheim has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of 14 road games where the total is five or less, in five of eight after allowing four goals or more, in six of eight after a loss by two goals or more and in 11 of 18 vs. teams with losing records.
And note that Philadelphia has seen the total drop below the posted number in ten of 17 non-conference contests (Philly has seen the total go UNDER in eight of 15 non-conference games).
The bottom line: The Ducks come in off a 6-2 loss at Pittsburgh just last night and we think will come out a bit flat offensively here. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move in this contest.
AAA Sports
