PREMIUM
AAA's 3-GAME DESTRUCTION PASS - +$20K NHL RUN CONTINUES!
(NHL) Winnipeg vs. Tampa Bay,
Money Line: -152.00 Tampa Bay (Home)
Result: Win
Money Line: -152.00 Tampa Bay (Home)
Result: Win
This is a 6* play on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation breeds motivation: Winnipeg is just 25-28-3 on the year and while it still has designs at one last playoff push, it's the Lightning which figure to come into this one the more motivated. At 30-22-4, Tampa is now outside of the playoff picture looking in and because of this, we definitely expect it to come in focused on the task at hand as it looks to avoid a fifth loss in its last six games. After winning nine-straight at home, the Bolts have dropped two in a row at Amalie Arena: "We've got 26 games left and they're all going to be important," said goaltender Ben Bishop. "It's gut-check time."
Crash and burn Jets: Winnipeg is near the bottom of the Western Conference and hasn't really shown any signs of life, it's managed just five non-shootout goals while splitting its last four and was held to eight of its 21 shots in the first two periods of Tuesday's 2-1 setback at Carolina. Note that the Jets are 1 for 20 on the power play in four games; they're also a unit which ranks near the bottom of the NHL in penalty-kill percentage.
ATS statistics: Note that Winnipeg is just 11-13 (-1.2 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Tampa Bay is 9-5 (+2.9 units) this year after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest.
The bottom line: When taking into account these strong situational and trend based factors working in favor of the home side, in our professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value." Play on the LIGHTNING.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation breeds motivation: Winnipeg is just 25-28-3 on the year and while it still has designs at one last playoff push, it's the Lightning which figure to come into this one the more motivated. At 30-22-4, Tampa is now outside of the playoff picture looking in and because of this, we definitely expect it to come in focused on the task at hand as it looks to avoid a fifth loss in its last six games. After winning nine-straight at home, the Bolts have dropped two in a row at Amalie Arena: "We've got 26 games left and they're all going to be important," said goaltender Ben Bishop. "It's gut-check time."
Crash and burn Jets: Winnipeg is near the bottom of the Western Conference and hasn't really shown any signs of life, it's managed just five non-shootout goals while splitting its last four and was held to eight of its 21 shots in the first two periods of Tuesday's 2-1 setback at Carolina. Note that the Jets are 1 for 20 on the power play in four games; they're also a unit which ranks near the bottom of the NHL in penalty-kill percentage.
ATS statistics: Note that Winnipeg is just 11-13 (-1.2 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Tampa Bay is 9-5 (+2.9 units) this year after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest.
The bottom line: When taking into account these strong situational and trend based factors working in favor of the home side, in our professional opinion this is indeed the very definition of "great line value." Play on the LIGHTNING.
AAA Sports
