PREMIUM
AAA's 3-Game TOP TOTALS REPORT - (100% SWEEP IT UP!)
(NBA) Denver vs. Sacramento,
Total: 218.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total: 218.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Loss
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings.
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a one key situational factor as well as some very strong and relevant ATS statistics:
Out with the old, in with the new: The Kings are 22-31 and need to start winning games immediately if they have any shot at a postseason berth. Head coach George Karl was on the hot seat prior to the All Star break, but somehow managed to keep his job. GM Vlade Divac though fired Karl's assistant Vance Walberg, to replace him with a more defensive-minded coach. Sacramento will clearly be focusing on the defensive end of the floor in the second half of the NBA season after surrendering an average of 117.3 points on 48.3 percent shooting over its last ten games, including three in a row with at least 120 allowed.
ATS statistics: Note that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of eight as a road dog of 3.5 to six points and in six of its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Sacramento has seen the total stay below the posted number in three of four as a home fav of 3.5 to six points and in eight of its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest.
The bottom line: All signs do indeed point to this number being a little high, play on the UNDER.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a one key situational factor as well as some very strong and relevant ATS statistics:
Out with the old, in with the new: The Kings are 22-31 and need to start winning games immediately if they have any shot at a postseason berth. Head coach George Karl was on the hot seat prior to the All Star break, but somehow managed to keep his job. GM Vlade Divac though fired Karl's assistant Vance Walberg, to replace him with a more defensive-minded coach. Sacramento will clearly be focusing on the defensive end of the floor in the second half of the NBA season after surrendering an average of 117.3 points on 48.3 percent shooting over its last ten games, including three in a row with at least 120 allowed.
ATS statistics: Note that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of eight as a road dog of 3.5 to six points and in six of its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Sacramento has seen the total stay below the posted number in three of four as a home fav of 3.5 to six points and in eight of its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest.
The bottom line: All signs do indeed point to this number being a little high, play on the UNDER.
AAA Sports
