PREMIUM
AAA's 10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF YEAR - +$32,000 RUN w/ NBA 10*'s!
(NBA) Memphis vs. Toronto,
Total: 202.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Win
Total: 202.00 | -105.00 Over
Result: Win
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Toronto Raptors.
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Home sweet home: The Raptors looked flat coming out of the break, falling 116-106 to a Chicago team which had lost five straight. They'd uncharacteristically give up 37 points in the third quarter, matching their second-most allowed in any period this season, while also letting the Bulls shoot 51.6 percent overall: "We had no semblance of defensive presence," coach Dwane Casey assessed last night. "... If we think we're going to go anywhere playing like that, we're kidding ourselves." So is it time to panic if you're a Toronto fan? We don't think there's any need to overreact, note that the team is still among the league leaders on the defensive end of the floor in giving up just 97.7 PPG (and note that the Raptors have not given up more than 110 points in three consecutive games since 2011). A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as Toronto has won eight straight north of the border.
Last time out: The last time these teams got together in Toronto, the Grizzlies would escape with a 92-86 victory on January 21st last season. Suffice it to say, we're expecting a similarly hard-fought, lower-scoring affair tonight.
Classic letdown/look-ahead spot: Memphis has to travel across the border for this contest against an Eastern Conference team, before then having three whole days off to prepare for a home and home set with the Lakers, followed by games at Phoenix, Denver and vs. Minnesota and Brooklyn on the horizon. After winning its first game out of the break in convincing fashion, a small mental lapse could absolutely be forgiven in this spot from the visitors, especially with such a favorable stretch upcoming.
ATS statistics: Note that Memphis has seen the total go UNDER the number in all three games this season as a road underdog of 6.5 to nine points and in seven of 13 after scoring 105 points or more, while Toronto has seen the total stay below the posted number in three of five as a home fav of 6.5 to nine points and in 11 of 20 after scoring 105 points or more.
The bottom line: The Raptors are eager to reverse their fortunes on the defensive end of the floor, while we're also expecting the visitors to come out flat; combined with these strong and relevant Over/Under ATS statistics, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Home sweet home: The Raptors looked flat coming out of the break, falling 116-106 to a Chicago team which had lost five straight. They'd uncharacteristically give up 37 points in the third quarter, matching their second-most allowed in any period this season, while also letting the Bulls shoot 51.6 percent overall: "We had no semblance of defensive presence," coach Dwane Casey assessed last night. "... If we think we're going to go anywhere playing like that, we're kidding ourselves." So is it time to panic if you're a Toronto fan? We don't think there's any need to overreact, note that the team is still among the league leaders on the defensive end of the floor in giving up just 97.7 PPG (and note that the Raptors have not given up more than 110 points in three consecutive games since 2011). A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as Toronto has won eight straight north of the border.
Last time out: The last time these teams got together in Toronto, the Grizzlies would escape with a 92-86 victory on January 21st last season. Suffice it to say, we're expecting a similarly hard-fought, lower-scoring affair tonight.
Classic letdown/look-ahead spot: Memphis has to travel across the border for this contest against an Eastern Conference team, before then having three whole days off to prepare for a home and home set with the Lakers, followed by games at Phoenix, Denver and vs. Minnesota and Brooklyn on the horizon. After winning its first game out of the break in convincing fashion, a small mental lapse could absolutely be forgiven in this spot from the visitors, especially with such a favorable stretch upcoming.
ATS statistics: Note that Memphis has seen the total go UNDER the number in all three games this season as a road underdog of 6.5 to nine points and in seven of 13 after scoring 105 points or more, while Toronto has seen the total stay below the posted number in three of five as a home fav of 6.5 to nine points and in 11 of 20 after scoring 105 points or more.
The bottom line: The Raptors are eager to reverse their fortunes on the defensive end of the floor, while we're also expecting the visitors to come out flat; combined with these strong and relevant Over/Under ATS statistics, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports
