This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant Over/Under ATS statistics:

Note that Memphis has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of 11 this year off an upset win as an underdog and not surprisingly in 37 of 58 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Dallas has seen the total sail above the number in six of nine this year after playing to three or more consecutive UNDERs and in 30 of 56 vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest.

The bottom line: All signs do indeed point to a high-scoring shootout today, play on the OVER.

AAA Sports