AAA's 10* AFC TOTAL OF MONTH (8-1, 89% GOM/GOY RUN!)
(NFL) Miami vs. New England,
Total: 42.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.

Setting the scene: Both teams are coming off lower-scoring affairs. Miami wasn't able to hold on to a late lead in Seattle, succumbing 12-10 to the Seahawks in the end, while the Pats would hold on for a 23-21 win at Arizona last Sunday night. The last time these teams played, the total also went UNDER the number. Despite all of the lower-scoring games, we think the conditions are now finally right for a bit of a shootout and we expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

Miami: It was supposed to be a new up-tempo offense for the Dolphins this year, but Seattle's tough defensive play shutdown the unit last week (the score was 6-3 heading into the fourth quarter). In the end Miami only produced 222 yards of offense, while giving up 352.

New England: Jimmy Garoppolo looked great against a tough Arizona defense and will look to kick this Dolphins' unit while its down. Garoppolo won't have Gronk in the line-up, but that hardly mattered last week either. New England won the ground battle 106-102 and the overall yardage war as well, 363-344. WR Julien Edelman had seven catches for 66 yards, but was held out of the endzone. Keep your eyes on the explosive receiver today though.

The bottom line: Note that the Dolphins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 7 points, while the Patriots have seen the total go OVER the posted number in 17 of their last 27 vs. conference opponents and in seven of their last 12 vs. the division. Everything points one way, but we're going the other. The Dolphins will be opening up the playbook today on the offensive side of the ball after the clunker in Week 1. These are two QB's with something to prove, all signs point to this one sneaking OVER late.

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