The Chicago Cubs are 10-2 through their last 12 games and just two wins away from clinching the National League Central, but I think they'll come up short here in the opener of a four-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cards hand the ball to Luke Weaver (7-1, 2.05 ERA) who's enjoying a terrific season. He is on a seven-game winning streak with a 1.69 ERA through his last eight starts and the 24 year old right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA in six appearances (four starts) at home this season.

The Cubs turn to Jon Lester (11-8, 4.56 ERA) who owns a 5.91 ERA in his past four starts, and we can note that the Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Cubs meanwhile are 2-7 in Lester's last nine starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Cubs have won five straight meetings and they lead the season series 11-4, but this series mean so much more for the home team in order to stay alive in the Wild Card chase.

My selection is a 10* play on St. Louis Cardinals.