The 7-2 New England Patriots are coming to Lucas Oil Stadium to lock horns with the 6-2 Indianapolis Colts. Both teams have been dangerous on the offense this season, especially in the air and all of the last five meetings have gone over the total. I think the books have over-compensated with total is set too high. I think the value lies on a play on the under.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Luck vs. Pats - For all the success Andrew Luck has had since his debut three seasons ago New England remains somewhat of a ghost for the 25 year old. He's still looking for his first win, showing a 51.6 completion rate while throwing seven picks over two games. If there's a D in the NFL that can deal with a red hot Luck, it's the Pats, especially coming off a 43-21 win against the Broncos where Peyton Manning was held to a 59% completion rate and a season-low 80.9 rating.

2. Indy at home - The Colts have allowed an average of 15 points against over their four home games so far this season. They shut out the Bengals in a 27-0 win the last time they played in Indianapolis on Oct 19, a game where they gave up only 103 yards against the pass and 32 against the run.

3. X-factor - The Patriots have conceded only 21.6 points per game on average over their current five game winning streak.

Selection: This is a play on NE@IND to go under the total (10*)