The Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears are two teams that are coming off tough losses on Thanksgiving day. Neither team is particularly good defensively, and because of that we see a high total on Thursday night. I think the value lies with a play on the under, with cold weather expected in the "Windy City".


Here are my keys to the game:

1. Dallas Game Plan - The Cowboys are well aware of their defensive shortcomings, and they know the best way to keep the ball out of Cutler's hands is to control the clock. Expect the Cowboys to run, run, run... and then run a little more.

2. Turnovers - You can always count on a few Jay Cutler turnovers to stall a promising offensive drive. The Chicago QB tossed a pair of INTs against the Lions, and he leads the league with 22 turnovers on the season. Tony Romo is also known to turn the ball over, although he's been a little better this year.

3. X-Factor - These teams have played four straight overs, however the total in each of those games was well below 50 (41 in three of those contests). They had played four straight unders in the previous four meetings.

Selection: This is a play on DAL@CHI to go UNDER the total (10*)